Hello, I’m Leonardo Nicolin, the creator of Analyse It, a website dedicated to Weekly Shonen Jump, and I’m here to bring you this week’s TOC analysis!
Weekly Shonen Jump #45 (07/10/2024):
ONE PIECE c1128 (Cover and Lead Color Page)
01 – Ao no Hako c167
02 – Choujun! Choujo-Senpai c33
03 – Akane Banashi c129
Hima-ten! c13 (Color Page)
04 – Negai no Astro c24
HAKUTAKU c03
Razotsu Youkai-gari (Color Page, One-Shot by Yoshida B6, GFC #01)
05 – Boku to Roboco c204
Madan no Ichi c05
06 – Kagurabachi c52
Shinobigoto c04
HUNTER×HUNTER c401 (Color Page)
07 – Nige Jouzu no Wakagimi c175
Super Magician John (15 pages, One-Shot by Onodera-san)
08 – Yozakura-san Chi no Daisakusen c245
09 – WITCH WATCH c174
10 – Nue no Onmyouji c69
11 – Undead Unluck c225
12 – Exorcist no Kiyoshi-kun c15
13 – Kill Ao c72
Youkai Buster Murakami c16
Digital Exclusive: Ruri Dragon c22
Absent: SAKAMOTO DAYS c185
Preview Weekly Shonen Jump #46 (15/10/2024):
Cover and Lead Color Page: Kagurabachi c53
Color Pages: Akane Banashi c130; Choujun! Choujou-senpai c34; Signal All Read (47 pages, one-shot by Izumi Hakase, GFC #02)
Remember, the TOC, contrary to what many believe, is not the direct result of votes from 7 weeks ago but rather a complex and fascinating magazine index decided by the editors using several factors, as explained by Oda himself!
If you want to fully understand the TOC and why it’s important to series success, click here: TOC Explanation.
Let’s start with the manga that weren’t ranked. I’ll write about the reception of Madan no Ichi (Ichi The Witch) and Shinobigoto (Shinobi Undercover) once they reach 7 chapters, so we can have a more complete picture. As for Hakutaku, I plan to do so after it hits five chapters since the series seems to have had both a poor reception and terrible viewership. On J+, its first chapter had fewer readers than Cycle Biyori, which was the worst-performing series in the magazine in recent years. The main criticism of Hakutaku is really about its art, which for many resembles the series from the 2000s—meaning 20 years ago.
I still see chances for success for Madan no Ichi and Shinobigoto (though we need to evaluate the latter more over the next few chapters), but I see low survival odds for Hakutaku, considering both the negative feedback and the lack of interest from the Japanese audience.
Moving on to the unranked manga, we had the return of Hunter x Hunter, which has almost 20 chapters ready, giving us almost six months of releases (also counting the Christmas and New Year breaks), to the delight of humanity. Certainly, the first 10 chapters will be released weekly, but for the next 10, the editors will evaluate the schedule. In the same issue, we had Sakamoto Days, where the author is beginning to struggle with the weekly pace: it’s possible (though not certain) that after the anime premieres, the series might start taking more breaks, following a release pattern similar to Jujutsu Kaisen.
In first place in the TOC, we had Ao no Hako (Blue Box), which launched the first episode of its anime (available on Netflix). The first episode received great feedback from the Japanese audience and is set to get a huge boost. For now, the prediction is that Ao no Hako will be the season’s anime with the biggest sales increase. This boost might lead Ao no Hako to become one of the top 10 best-selling shonen in the market, showing that the magazine has a real goldmine on its hands. I know many people in the West ignore the work since it’s not a Battle-Shounen, but I recommend you give the anime a try—it’s simply beautiful.
In second place, we had Choujun! Chojo-Senpai (Super Psychic Policeman Chojo), much to the dismay of comedy haters. Ever since Saito, the new Editor-in-Chief of the magazine, took over, the series has been consistently placed in the second half of the magazine (in reading order), as the editor preferred to highlight Boku to Roboco. For those who don’t know, comedies are very important for the magazine, as they are essential for breaking up the seriousness of a string of drama or Battle-Shounen manga. A magazine without comedies becomes heavier, reducing the likelihood that younger readers will finish the entire issue.
But why rank Choujun! Chojo-Senpai in second place? Well, let’s first remember that when the editors rank the magazine’s manga, they consider past vote results, the chapter of the week, and the needs of the series. After evaluating the overall situation, they chose the positions: last week, we had Nige Jouzu no Wakagimi (The Elusive Samurai) in first place, in one of the most shocking chapters of the entire series, and there’s no denying that the chapter’s quality influenced its top placement. I believe Choujun! Chojo-Senpai climbed this week due to the chapter’s quality and probably because of a good reception of the last chapter voted on by the public.
In third place, we had Akane Banashi, which is still waiting for its anime announcement. I expect it to happen at Jump Festa. The longer the series goes without a new cover, the closer that cover is likely to be to December, which increases the chances of it being the cover that announces the anime. Remember, the series will have a stand at Jump Festa, and while it’s not a certainty that the anime will be announced, it increases the possibility.
In fourth place, we had Negai no Astro (Astro Royale), which released its second volume today in Japan. This volume is crucial because we’ll see whether the series has a sales boost, stabilization, or a drop. In the first two cases, Negai no Astro will continue to survive. If it experiences a drop (especially if it’s significant), the series will enter 2025 in a more delicate situation, depending on whether the editors find many successful series next year to avoid cancellation.
In fifth place, we had Boku to Roboco, which remains safe in the magazine. In sixth place, we had Kagurabachi, which released its fourth volume and is already a huge success in sales. The series is set to surpass Sakamoto Days and, for a short while, even Ao no Hako (which, with the anime boost, will soon sell more than Kagurabachi again), becoming the second best-selling series in the magazine without an anime, only losing to Ruri Dragon (Digital Exclusive), which sold 134,000 copies in 1 month. Kagurabachi is the next big hit for the magazine, and many already consider it the true successor to Jujutsu Kaisen.
In seventh place, we had Nige Jouzu no Wakagimi (The Elusive Samurai), which continues to enjoy a solid boost. Counting the volume released in September (which sold 58,000 copies in 1 month) and the older volumes, the series sold 166,000 copies in September. The success of Nige Jouzu no Wakagimi is due to two factors: the high-quality anime from CloverWorks—considered the best anime of the season by the Japanese—and the quality of the series itself, which, despite losing readers due to its difficult-to-relate-to story, has been delivering very high-quality chapters in recent months.
In eighth place, we had Yozakura-San Chi no Daisakusen, whose first (and probably only) anime season is about to end. On top of that, everything points to Yozakura-San possibly concluding in issue #49 or #50. The next batch should debut right after Yozakura-San ends, and I believe we’ll see two new manga debuting. In ninth place, we had Witch Watch, which is awaiting its anime premiere in April.
In tenth place, we had Nue no Onmyouji, which, after featuring a small “harem” scene in an episode, prompted the Japanese to create two threads for the series on Jump Matome, one to discuss the “Dating Game” that Nue might become. The truth is that Nue no Onmyouji is a very niche series, where the author even tried to transition more into the Battle-Shounen genre, but it garners more attention when it sticks to what its niche audience wants: gacha and girls. When Nue no Onmyouji tries to take itself seriously, it ends up displeasing its own readers.
I believe there was even an attempt to push the series beyond its niche, but I don’t think that’s possible because its strengths aren’t what the general audience is looking for. So, even though I like Nue, I have to admit that it will likely continue to sell between 25,000 and 30,000 copies, won’t get much promotion from the magazine, and will stay in the mid-to-bottom ranks until it gets an anime. But Nue no Onmyouji is undoubtedly a success within his circle.
In eleventh place, we had our beloved Undead Unluck, which hasn’t received a color page for many weeks—I don’t think the series will last much longer, probably wrapping up in 18, 27, or 36 chapters, depending on the author’s pace and how many chapters were agreed upon with the editors to finish the series (probably a number acceptable to the author and good for the magazine, which is clearly going through a lineup renewal phase). Honestly, I see Undead Unluck ending between February and August 2025—the reason for my prediction? The pace of the series and the way Saito is treating it.
In twelfth place, we had Exorcist no Kiyoshi-Kun, which isn’t at risk of cancellation in the upcoming batch of new manga in November, but it’s far from safe for the next one. If it were really in danger, the editors would already be consistently placing it at the bottom. The series is performing very poorly in the votes, and if it continues like this, it’s at risk of saying goodbye. In last place, we had Kill Ao (Kill Blue), which, despite being ranked last, I don’t see as being at risk of cancellation for the next batch. Its situation will be reassessed in 2025, but for now, it’s safe. This is just a temporary last-place ranking.
Wrapping up with the two unranked manga, we had Youkai Buster Murakami, which is being poorly received and will likely be axed in the next batch. We also had the digital exclusive chapter of Ruri Dragon, which, just as a reminder, is a Weekly Shonen Jump manga released simultaneously in both the e-book version of Weekly Shonen Jump and on Jump Plus.
